ECONOMIC STIMULANT

Rohatinski: HNB ready for proactive policy

18.12.2009 u 12:17

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Croatian National Bank (HNB) governor Željko Rohatinski said on Thursday that the central bank is ready for a proactive monetary policy, provided such policy exists on the national level

A proactive policy on the national level means directing liquidity into a healthy economic growth, where it gives results, and not squandering it on consumption and a higher deficit, Rohatinski told press.

According to HNB figures, banks have been depositing more than HRK 2 billion at the HNB for quite some time. If one adds the amounts from the HNB's foreign exchange interventions, there is a liquidity surplus of some HRK 4.5 billion.

If the HNB reacted by reducing the mandatory reserves rate from 14 to 12 per cent, the effect would be some HRK 6 billion and the business sector could have some HRK 10 billion at its disposal.

However, the central bank says that transferring liquidity from bank vaults to their clients' accounts depends on who bears the risk of the transfer.

In countries which have opted for a form of proactive policy, the state has taken on some of the risk, Rohatinski said, adding this required a change in the work of institutions.

This change would see, for example, institutions taking on the risk, controlling how the money is being spent, and exact spending criteria, he said, adding he was referring primarily to existing institutions such as the Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

The HNB has no information about the possibility of setting up a fund for helping companies. "We are not against that or anything that can help, but we are primarily thinking about existing institutions," said Rohatinski.

Asked if the HNB and the government were discussing a proactive policy, he answered negatively. He said a proactive economic policy was presently only being considered and that there was no consensus as to what it should be like and how it should be implemented.

The other approach is to pursue the current policy, leaving the interests of the business sector, banks, companies and households as well as market relations to provide growth impulses.

This is perhaps the most realistic approach, Rohatinski said, adding the HNB therefore anticipated a stagnation of economic activity in 2010.

He assessed that this year "has shown how vulnerable our highly indebted, highly euroised economy is, with a high balance of payments deficit and a high fiscal deficit".

He stressed that the HNB and commercial banks had done their utmost to preserve liquidity, and that the financial sector was stable and doing good business, with an 8-9 per cent return of invested capital.

On the other hand, the real sector is facing an 18 per cent decline in foreign demand and a slow capital influx, while its relationship with banks is characterised by general insecurity, uncertainty, and an avoidance of taking on risks.